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COVID General Discussion thread #5


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LemonMyrtle
1 minute ago, MoukMouk said:

Scotty is addressing the nation. Waffle waffle waffle

I tried to watch, I lasted 1 minute, when he seemed to struggle to remember the names of the other states that aren’t Sydney I turned it off. 
 

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3 minutes ago, pelagic said:

Was it the Nederlands that opened up after getting 70% vaccinated and promptly had to close down again? 

I'm not sure of the vaccination figures, but there was an article on the ABC about a festival of 20k people. Attendees had to have had covid, be double immunised, or have a recent negative covid test.  1,000 of them were infected.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-18/freedom-day-looms-in-england-despite-coronavirus-surge/100295326

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So Netherlands had high vax rates. opened up and it spread, but no real increase in hospitalizations, but they still brought restrictions back? why?  People need to stop being afraid on case numbers, sounds like the vaccination is doing its job, there will always be an exit wave.

 

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9 minutes ago, Kavity said:

So Netherlands had high vax rates. opened up and it spread, but no real increase in hospitalizations, but they still brought restrictions back? why?  People need to stop being afraid on case numbers, sounds like the vaccination is doing its job, there will always be an exit wave.

 

Because they were worried they'd get a much larger spread that would put the hospitals under pressure? 

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I know Singapore has a lower vaccination rate so have lockdown again until they are higher but they have the right idea, at some point you need to stop talking case numbers, especially once it has little bearing on the numbers who are actually sick, if your hospital rate is stable you really don't need to know or care of 25K vaccinated people have Covid per day.

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1 minute ago, Kavity said:

I know Singapore has a lower vaccination rate so have lockdown again until they are higher but they have the right idea, at some point you need to stop talking case numbers, especially once it has little bearing on the numbers who are actually sick, if your hospital rate is stable you really don't need to know or care of 25K vaccinated people have Covid per day.

I don't know - I think it's useful to know what the spread is. If you're pretty sure you won't die from it you probably don't need to know, but if you're 80 and have asthma, might be useful information to stay at home a while longer. 

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4 minutes ago, Kavity said:

I know Singapore has a lower vaccination rate so have lockdown again until they are higher but they have the right idea, at some point you need to stop talking case numbers, especially once it has little bearing on the numbers who are actually sick, if your hospital rate is stable you really don't need to know or care of 25K vaccinated people have Covid per day.

That is so far off for us that it's something we should be talking about for down the track, late next year perhaps.

I'm not saying we shouldn't discuss it, I'm just saying that talking about it like we're on the cusp of it ignores the situation we're in. I'm sure we'll 'have the right idea' too, when we catch up with their vaccination rates.

 

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2 minutes ago, Bornagirl said:

That is so far off for us that it's something we should be talking about for down the track, late next year perhaps.

I'm not saying we shouldn't discuss it, I'm just saying that talking about it like we're on the cusp of it ignores the situation we're in. I'm sure we'll 'have the right idea' too, when we catch up with their vaccination rates.

 

But places are at this point but are still focusing so heavily on cases, in England almost half of cases are vaccinated so clearly it breaks the severe illness connection but not so much the transmission, that I believe will naturally die down like most new diseases. I highly doubt it will be late next year, Vaccination will ramp up shortly and our population isn't that big. 

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purplekitty

This page lists the current restrictions in the Netherlands.

https://dutchreview.com/news/coronavirus-netherlands/

The current outbreak is 75% among younger people, the cohort that have not been vaccinated.

The elderly were the priority.

 

And why they don't want hospitalisations to go up further.

https://nltimes.nl/2021/07/13/dutch-coronavirus-average-sets-new-9-week-high-hospitalizations-rise-overnight

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3 minutes ago, Kavity said:

But places are at this point but are still focusing so heavily on cases, in England almost half of cases are vaccinated so clearly it breaks the severe illness connection but not so much the transmission, that I believe will naturally die down like most new diseases. I highly doubt it will be late next year, Vaccination will ramp up shortly and our population isn't that big. 

Our population isn't that big, but the number of vaccines coming in isn't big, either.

It will take quite a few months to get from 'everyone who wants a vaccine can have one, and does so' to all of those reluctant to immunise their kids, the covid deniers, the conspiracy theorists, the ones happy to be protected by others, along of course, with the significant minority who are validly not being vaccinated. 

I believe the percentage is something like 85% of the whole population. No country is remotely close to that. The UK numbers surged, but are now only climbing slowly.

As it turns out, sinopharm vax is not very efficient at preventing Delta, which means while countries like Indonesia have huge issues, so will our vulnerable population.

The UK figures don't yet show any effect of opening up.  Even without fully opening up, Delta has caused them to go from just over 1,000 cases, and some days no, or few deaths, to now about 50k cases, and their deaths yesterday were 100 and are only going to keep rising.

Fauci is expecting another wave in the poorer states of the USA.

No country is on the home run with this.

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purplekitty

The UK.

611 Ventilated which is a poor prognostic factor.

The government’s latest available daily COVID-19 statistics show that:

today, 46,558 people tested positive for COVID-19

today, 96 people sadly died within 28 days of having tested positive for COVID-19 – this is the highest figure for daily deaths 24 March

on Wednesday 14 July, 745 patients were admitted to hospital with COVID-19

on Monday 19 July, 4,567 COVID-19 patients were still in hospital

on Monday 19 July, 611 COVID-19 patients were in ventilation beds

the total number of people who had received their first dose of COV

https://www.nhsconfed.org/what-we-do

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1 hour ago, LemonMyrtle said:

Oooh, Scott Morrison is having a press conference today, I better tune in because it must be important

said no one ever. 

I swiped the ABC news notification about that starting off my screen almost as fast as if Scomo was smirking out at me from Tindr

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LemonMyrtle
1 minute ago, Mooguru said:

I swiped the ABC news notification about that starting off my screen almost as fast as if Scomo was smirking out at me from Tindr

He is apparently taking responsibility for, What he says, is just a 2 month delay in his vaccination schedule, and that will be all caught up by the end of the year anyway.

nothing to see here, move along. 

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Well it's hard to keep shirking all responsibility when I'm pretty sure most premiers have criticised the roll out and said they can't get the vaccines they need. 

I believe GB said something along the lines of she had spoken to the feds about getting more vaccines until she was blue in the face without success, so take it up with them instead. 

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4 minutes ago, purplekitty said:

Seems like Covd is one issue compared to the issues the actual lockdown have caused with delayed medical treatment in general, same will happen in Melbourne but not to that same large extent and the delayed diagnosis catch up with us. Lockdowns may help limit spread but they have other problems. Covid cannot be eradicated, people will probably still die from it 10 years from now, but the UK really is at the if you want it you can have it point with vaccination, you can't really push more than that without ethical concerns.

Isn't NZ just as bad as us with Vaccination I don't hear anything about her failures? They are  both just as bad, she would be just as guilty if they had a large outbreak, luck on NZ's side?

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LemonMyrtle
Just now, Mooguru said:

Well it's hard to keep shirking all responsibility when I'm pretty sure most premiers have criticised the roll out and said they can't get the vaccines they need. 

I believe GB said something along the lines of she had spoken to the feds about getting more vaccines until she was blue in the face without success, so take it up with them instead. 

It’s starting to look like mass vaccination is their only way out.
I’d say give them all the vaccines, take ours, but unfortunately we have outbreaks elsewhere now too and that will keep happening, so all high risk people everywhere need to keep getting vaccines too. 

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1 hour ago, MoukMouk said:

Scotty is addressing the nation. Waffle waffle waffle

My favourite line was along the lines of: no other country is making the vaccine who were not making it before.  

It’s not a verbatim quote but pretty close to what he said about why his government chose AZ over Pfizer originally.  Nothing to do with effectiveness, safety etc. All about the ability to produce it locally.  Pfizer wouldn’t give away their proprietary rights to the vaccine and according to media reports, the federal government representative was not very diplomatic in negotiations.

Funny how his government wasn’t concerned pre-pandemic about the local manufacturer of medications.  I haven’t heard anything about federal government support for local medication manufacturing since either.  

1 hour ago, Kavity said:

So Netherlands had high vax rates. opened up and it spread, but no real increase in hospitalizations, but they still brought restrictions back? why?  People need to stop being afraid on case numbers, sounds like the vaccination is doing its job, there will always be an exit wave.

 

80% of Australian’s population of 26million is 5.2million.  

I read NSW’s hospitalisation rate with this delta outbreak is 12.4%.  If we allowed covid to spread unchecked, even with 80% vaccination and assuming no one vaccinated ended up hospitalised, that’s still 645k people hospitalised!

10% have ended up in ICU so that would be 65,000 people in ICU.

For me, that’s too high a price to pay for an “exit wave”.  

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18 minutes ago, Basil said:

My favourite line was along the lines of: no other country is making the vaccine who were not making it before.  

It’s not a verbatim quote but pretty close to what he said about why his government chose AZ over Pfizer originally.  Nothing to do with effectiveness, safety etc. All about the ability to produce it locally.  Pfizer wouldn’t give away their proprietary rights to the vaccine and according to media reports, the federal government representative was not very diplomatic in negotiations.

Funny how his government wasn’t concerned pre-pandemic about the local manufacturer of medications.  I haven’t heard anything about federal government support for local medication manufacturing since either.  

80% of Australian’s population of 26million is 5.2million.  

I read NSW’s hospitalisation rate with this delta outbreak is 12.4%.  If we allowed covid to spread unchecked, even with 80% vaccination and assuming no one vaccinated ended up hospitalised, that’s still 645k people hospitalised!

10% have ended up in ICU so that would be 65,000 people in ICU.

For me, that’s too high a price to pay for an “exit wave”.  

Can I ask where you are getting those numbers? The 10% of cases end up in ICU seems too high. 

From NSW health:

"There have been 1,528 locally acquired cases reported since 16 June 2021, when the first case in the Bondi cluster was reported.

There are currently 106 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 23 people in intensive care, 11 of whom require ventilation."

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Over and out
1 minute ago, Mooguru said:

Can I ask where you are getting those numbers? The 10% of cases end up in ICU seems too high. 

From NSW health:

"There have been 1,528 locally acquired cases reported since 16 June 2021, when the first case in the Bondi cluster was reported.

There are currently 106 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 23 people in intensive care, 11 of whom require ventilation."

I thought it was more like 10% in hospital, which would kind of fit, as there are 106 in hospital now, and some will have been released from hospital.

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Sorry @Basil I think your 80% is wrong.  .8 *26,000,00 is 20,800,000

the figure you have is the 20% left over 5.2 million

Edited by Meepy
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28 minutes ago, Mooguru said:

Can I ask where you are getting those numbers? The 10% of cases end up in ICU seems too high. 

From NSW health:

"There have been 1,528 locally acquired cases reported since 16 June 2021, when the first case in the Bondi cluster was reported.

There are currently 106 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 23 people in intensive care, 11 of whom require ventilation."

Hospitals have been working on a rough 20% figure for hospitalizations requiring ICU. Before today NSW was tracking at almost 30%, has dropped with a large #admitted to hospital today.  The ventilation rates are worryingly high though.

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33 minutes ago, Meepy said:

Sorry @Basil I think your 80% is wrong.  .8 *26,000,00 is 20,800,000

the figure you have is the 20% left over 5.2 million

Posting in a rush and didn’t  explain myself very well.  

I was rebutting the earlier argument about if we have enough people vaccinated, we can ‘open up’ and will just have to accept the illness and deaths associated with an exit wave of cases.

My point was, even with 80% of the population vaccinated (the figure some have been bandying about), there would still be 20% of the population who will be susceptible to serious illness associated with covid.

5.2million is the number of Australians who would be at risk of catching covid and developing serious complications IF we lifted all restrictions once we hit that magic 80% vaccination rate.

I was going off memory from the various articles and news reports I had heard for the hospitalisation and ICU rate.

But using this https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-local.aspx there have been 1467 locally acquired cases for the four weeks up to 20 July, 2021.

And from here https://www.health.gov.au/resources/current-covid-19-cases-in-hospitals-and-intensive-care-units-icus as at 20 July, 2021, there are 95 people hospitalised in NSW due to covid.   That’s a 15.4% hospitalisation rate.

Of those 95 hospitalised, 27 are in ICU.  That’s a 28.4% rate of hospitalised patients requiring ICU.  I might have mistaken the rate requiring ventilators vs ICU.  The numbers are only rough approximates but enough to get an indication of how serious the delta variant is.

20% of Australians not vaccinated under herd immunity 80% goal and we ‘open up without restrictions’, means 5.2mil x 15.4% =  801k hospitalised.  801k x 28.4% in ICU = 227k. 
 

 

 

 

 

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