Hope we don't get like Europe

[Justfornow]

24 minutes ago, dianalynch said:

High vaccination, vaccination for children, masks, distancing, boosting health system capacity, investing in therapies, if we do all of that and do it well I hope we can avoid a lockdown next winter. 

Very few people will accept a lockdown next year again.  By then we have to accept that this is endemic in the community and that (largely over 80 year old) people will die.    We’ve had two years to prepare.  If it needs more ICU beds then hopefully they have a plan.   But lockdowns of an entire population should be the last resort. 

[LunaFreya]

Well we have a way to get rid of antivaxers at least. Wish it didn’t come to this though

[dianalynch]

5 minutes ago, Justfornow said:

Very few people will accept a lockdown next year again.  By then we have to accept that this is endemic in the community and that (largely over 80 year old) people will die.    We’ve had two years to prepare.  If it needs more ICU beds then hopefully they have a plan.   But lockdowns of an entire population should be the last resort. 

I wasn’t advocating for a lockdown...I’m in Melbourne and I couldn’t go through that again.
I do however suggest that governments continue to do what I’ve outlined to avoid a situation where higher level of restrictions, including lockdowns to some degree, are back on the table. what we’re seeing across Europe is, in some respects, avoidable.  

[Princess Peach]

8 minutes ago, Justfornow said:

Very few people will accept a lockdown next year again.  By then we have to accept that this is endemic in the community and that (largely over 80 year old) people will die.    We’ve had two years to prepare.  If it needs more ICU beds then hopefully they have a plan.   But lockdowns of an entire population should be the last resort. 

It may not just be the old, look at the USA & it’s fast becoming a pandemic of the younger. Hopefully the TGA have approved vaccinations for the youngest members of society & then you can say hand on heart, I’ve done everything to protect myself.

[qak]

2 minutes ago, Justfornow said:

Very few people will accept a lockdown next year again.

I'd agree with this.

It might work short term but it isn't solving the (currently unsolvable) problem. It does come down to money for individuals and governments, and the world we live in.

All because of some biological bastardry 

 

[purplekitty]

Someone is going to have to eventually have to think of the HCWs and not take them for granted.

There is no respite for them.

 

Increasing ICU numbers isn't that easy and depends on highly trained and specialised staff.

It takes years and if you have the ones already there leaving you have a problem.

[LunaFreya]

I don’t want another lockdown, but I do t want things to get worse without another lockdown either just because they are bad PR. I’m concerned that our resistance to lockdowns may result in the the virus running unchecked this winter if we don’t act smart now.

I doubt we will act smart as ScoMo no no doubt thinks he can just cruise through disasters with sound bites.

[Meepy]

I think the acceptability of any future lockdowns will depend on the cohort that is affected.  If we see lots of kids getting very ill, there will be more acceptance.  If it is the elderly of those with comorbidities people will not want to lockdown.  
People have proven themselves to be exceptionally selfish and stupid.  If a lockdown is required to protect the vulnerable, then they should comply, regardless of how sick of it they are.

Viruses do not care if you are over them, they see that as an opportunity.  Melbourne covid cases would have reduced if we didn’t keep having super spreading protests.  I am not sure if the stupids realise that you can’t control a virus. 

[SFmummyto3]

2 hours ago, purplekitty said:

Someone is going to have to eventually have to think of the HCWs and not take them for granted.

There is no respite for them.

 

Increasing ICU numbers isn't that easy and depends on highly trained and specialised staff.

It takes years and if you have the ones already there leaving you have a problem.

I've wondered about the numbers of new students enrolling (or not) in the ICU postgrad courses and whether there will be enough specialist staff. I've read where general RN's from other wards have been rostered there to cover some of the shortfall. Even then the nurse/patient ratios are not what they should be to receive the highest quality care. What on earth are we going to do if the numbers increase again going into next Winter? Not to mention the cancelled and postponed surgeries, when are they going to actually happen?

Out of dd's grad year nursing cohort of more than 300 students, not one single person is at all interested in working in ICU as they "don't just want to look after Covid patients who should've had the vaccine" (excluding those who aren't able to have it). There is a lot of anger and exasperation amongst the younger new grads towards the antivaxxers. Perhaps in years to come when (if) the case numbers decrease and ICU returns to a more normal state, then it might encourage staff to the specialist training. I certainly hope so.

Edited November 22, 2021 by SFmummyto3

[nasty_buddha]

Yes of course we will be in lockdown again. What we had last time was hardly an outbreak comparing our size population and our numbers. Our hospital system is a joke. The govt have been lying when they have said they have flexed up the beds. They did sweet fuck all. 

[STBG 2]

6 minutes ago, nasty_buddha said:

Yes of course we will be in lockdown again. What we had last time was hardly an outbreak comparing our size population and our numbers. Our hospital system is a joke. The govt have been lying when they have said they have flexed up the beds. They did sweet fuck all. 

Finding beds is not the problem, staffing beds is, particularly ICU beds. We went through periods when entire staff in some areas were sick with COVID or furloughing because they were close contacts.

As someone who has family and friends working in the public system at the moment I can tell you that the care they give is not a joke. 

[CrankyM]

31 minutes ago, nasty_buddha said:

Yes of course we will be in lockdown again. What we had last time was hardly an outbreak comparing our size population and our numbers. Our hospital system is a joke. The govt have been lying when they have said they have flexed up the beds. They did sweet fuck all. 

It's staffing. We are something like 30,000 staff short to get more beds up and running for the ICU. I'm pretty sure that was for just 200 more ICU beds for the whole of Australia. The level of care required in the ICU is very specialised and it is 1:1 or more at times. We literally do not have enough staff. And staff are so much harder to source then actual beds. But they keep talking about beds and ventilators. And I can tell you know from the nursing students I know, they do not want to go into the ICU graduate programs. They just don't. The prospect of having to deal with Covid patients, potentially catch Covid and bring it home to their family, dealing with the mental anguish dealing with patients who frankly a large number of could have prevented this by a simple vaccination, dealing with people who could easily have prevented themselves from getting that sick, abuse etc. All factors putting them off from wanting to move into that type or position. It's damned hard work and frankly I think we are pushing our HCW to the brink. Staff are leaving already because they are burnt out, why on earth would new nurses want to take on these jobs when they could so another graduate specialty? And even then it is 3 years minimum before they are are full qualified.

So yes the health care system isn't great. But it's not as simple as they can't find beds or buy more equipment. 

[LunaFreya]

Just can’t throw money at the problem 

[Seayork2002]

Yes lots of lots of hospitals appearing by magic (it would hav e to be magic as they would have to be built first) And would they be in use after covid?

And all the medical staff just qualify overnight? Nurses and doctors don't just appear en mass overnight, and once covid is over would they keep their jobs?

It does sound great in theory

[Person5]

What LG said. Jabs, masks, public health measures, to keep the community safe, at least at the domestic level.

But, it’s a global problem and needs global cooperation long term. It’s great we’re at the booster stage but so long as there are countries and populations without sufficient access to vaccinations (separate from refusal to vaccinate) there is potential for new variants to form. We’re adequately protected from delta but what of mutations?

While there are large numbers unvaccinated around the world, we’re going to be on edge for the foreseeable future, because it’s not like we can function with closed borders indefinitely.

[Greenbean]

We won't be out of the woods for a while yet, but I do think 2022 will be better than 2021 because of vaccines and treatment options for covid. At the end of 2020 I wasn't feeling very hopeful for 2021, but I'm feeling better about next year. Will it be smooth sailing? Absolutely not.

 

 

 

[dianalynch]

So true you just can’t quickly come up with the highly experienced icu staff needed to work with these cases...and they’re becoming disenfranchised..I know icu staff, they’ve literally just about had it, they keep going, but it’s coming at a huge cost to them. 

[SFmummyto3]

Yep the younger grad nurses have NO interest in working in ICU anymore, where prior to Covid some of them were def interested (according to dd). 

I was feeling more upbeat and hopeful for next year, but since I've been following the updates in Europe, my hope is fading fast.

Edited November 22, 2021 by SFmummyto3

[Blueskies12]

I'm really worried about what is happening in Europe. Does anyone know/can link to what is happening in the US?  

[Sancti-claws]

7 hours ago, LunaFreya said:

Makes me wonder if there were riots when they closed down public places because of plague in Newton’s or Shakespeare’s time.

Yes

https://daily.jstor.org/plague-and-protest-go-hand-in-hand/

 

[WaitForMe]

2 hours ago, LunaFreya said:

Just can’t throw money at the problem 

I think there has been some attempts along those lines with paying HCW, at least in vic, I can't remember the details. Pretty sure they get a top up. They could provide an incentive to grads too, if they aren't already.

The states that haven't dealt with a major outbreak are a concern too. Hopefully they've sent some staff to NSW and Vic hospitals to gain experience.

[Moomintroll]

25 minutes ago, Blueskies said:

I'm really worried about what is happening in Europe. Does anyone know/can link to what is happening in the US?  

Not currently at its worst. they had a really good run in June and July, then a really bad September, now sort of mid way. but it never gets to a point where there are a low number of deaths, I would not find it acceptable in Australia. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[Tinsel]

5 hours ago, Justfornow said:

Very few people will accept a lockdown next year again.  By then we have to accept that this is endemic in the community and that (largely over 80 year old) people will die.    We’ve had two years to prepare.  If it needs more ICU beds then hopefully they have a plan.   But lockdowns of an entire population should be the last resort. 

This thinking makes me very angry.

It's not only the elderly who will die and why is it okay for them to die from covid because others don't want to accept lockdown?  Perhaps those who won't accept another lockdown could volunteer their parents and grandparents to die from covid.  

And let's not ignore that it won't be just those dispensible 80+ year olds who will die.  It will be our much younger friends and family members who will be at risk even if they don't have covid.

Even those for whom a transplant organ has been found and is ready to be transplanted are at increased risk of death:

Covid crisis in ICUs forces transplant cancellation, while Government considers adding third jab to vaccine cert - Independent.ie

 

 

[Moomintroll]

8 minutes ago, Sancti-claws said:

Yes

https://daily.jstor.org/plague-and-protest-go-hand-in-hand/

 

That's completely fascinating.

There will be deep social changes to emerge from covid over coming years. I hope we can move on without too much social division. 

[Ballogo]

56 minutes ago, Blueskies said:

I'm really worried about what is happening in Europe. Does anyone know/can link to what is happening in the US?  

I don't have a direct source but the Guardian reported on Fauci warning the US of a new surge.  Exactly the same as the past two years - population movement due to Thanksgiving, leading into Winter.... but with swathes of the population unvaccinated.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/21/us-covid-cases-thanksgiving-fauci