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WDYT are the chances of international travel by Dec 2021/Jan 2022?


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Seayork2002

Op I got the gist even though the dates were wrong before 2020 and 2021 seems the same year to me, even at work I have to ask colleagues to remind me the year

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I know two people that have had permission and travelled overseas to farewell loved ones. It's been in the last 6 months though, so I wonder if they are allowing more compassionate cases?

 

Lots of travel is being approved, it’s the 2 week hotel quarantine on return that’s the problem. DH went to Singapore for 5 days then had 2 weeks quarantine. His colleague went to south Africa, which made Singapore seem not too bad. He has 2 more trips overseas booked before

September.


There is no way I’ll book anything while there’s a need to quarantine on return (unless it was on my own on some tropical island!)!

I cant envisage that happening for a long while yet.

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There is no way I’ll book anything while there’s a need to quarantine on return (unless it was on my own on some tropical island!)!

I cant envisage that happening for a long while yet.

 

Taiwan which is the best country for managing the virus uses home quarantine. I think this would be a lot more acceptable to people because it’s not as costly or lonely, you can work from home and go into the garden for fresh air.


Perhaps Australia could move forward into a mix of HQ for high risk countries and home quarantine for low risk and vaccinated people. It would free up more HQ places so that more people can travel.


In WA they do daily location checks at random times for those who home quarantine. So there are high tech ways of enforcing it.


I hope the current system evolves.

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I am hoping at least Japan, Singapore might be on the cards but it does seem very unlikely. I'm thinking about booking a cancellable holiday somewhere in Oz for Christmas/January so we have something interesting to look forward to. Maybe WA?

 

oh do! I’m writing this from Freo and in a few days land in Broome to do a trip across the Kimberley. Then a hire car Kununurra to Darwin.


I realised during lockdown in Melbourne that what I was missing most was planning travel as much as going. After decades of little ability to travel far except jan, in retirement we’re making up for lost time.


I booked the Kimberley part last nov and built the rest around it. We also went to Newcastle for a week in feb.

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Based on the straw poll results here DH and I have decided to plan an Aust. holiday at Christmastime. We are thinking of driving down the south coast of NSW and staying near the VIC border for a few days for some beach time, then heading to Melbourne for Christmas and the Boxing Day test, then to Point Lonsdale to catch up with friends, then drive back through the alpine region of VIC/NSW.

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Taiwan which is the best country for managing the virus uses home quarantine. I think this would be a lot more acceptable to people because it’s not as costly or lonely, you can work from home and go into the garden for fresh air.


Perhaps Australia could move forward into a mix of HQ for high risk countries and home quarantine for low risk and vaccinated people. It would free up more HQ places so that more people can travel.


In WA they do daily location checks at random times for those who home quarantine. So there are high tech ways of enforcing it.


I hope the current system evolves.

Taiwan also requires a fairly intrusive level of government oversight with phone access etc before you’re allowed to home quarantine. They have very strict rules and little leeway.


I have a relative who was home quarantining and missed the check in phone call because they were in the shower. Within 10mins, there were police knocking on the door and a massive fine (it was in the thousands of Australian dollars from memory). And that was a first time offence.


They also still have hotel quarantine and if you are home quarantining, the whole household has to quarantine too.


I have a friend whose son had to quarantine in Canada. They had to extend their mortgage to pay for the security bond for their son (it was $100k, I don’t remember if it was AUD or Canadian dollars). They called their son all the time to make sure he wasn’t breaking any of the quarantine rules which would mean they lose the bond. Highly stressful for them and my friend mentioned the few thousand dollars for hotel quarantine would have been her preferred choice if it had been an option.

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My friend who went to stay with her family in WA was also caught out in the shower when the police called. They finally got her on the third call or so. They were very understanding though, she said!


It was an app loaded onto her phone and allowed the police to view her face during the call to confirm it was her.


The other household members could still go about their business, I am not sure that they had to quarantine with her? I guess if she was really high risk at the time she would have gone to hotel quarantine anyway.


I think the WA model home quarantine model might be worth looking at for international arrivals from lower risk countries and fully vaccinated people if this drags on more than two years. Of course we would still need HQ probably for years for high risk.

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My friend who went to stay with her family in WA was also caught out in the shower when the police called. They finally got her on the third call or so. They were very understanding though, she said!


It was an app loaded onto her phone and allowed the police to view her face during the call to confirm it was her.


The other household members could still go about their business, I am not sure that they had to quarantine with her? I guess if she was really high risk at the time she would have gone to hotel quarantine anyway.


I think the WA model home quarantine model might be worth looking at for international arrivals from lower risk countries and fully vaccinated people if this drags on more than two years. Of course we would still need HQ probably for years for high risk.

That’s interesting. A friend was a back up support person for someone who had a medical exemption for home quarantine in Qld. The other household member also had to quarantine. They needed to demonstrate their support network, how they would get meals, groceries etc delivered and the back ups incase the support person was unable to help. Their adult child who lived in the house decided to move out so they wouldn’t have to quarantine.

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At the rate our vaccine roll out is going....................


I also feel that as covid 19 is spreading with little to no control in Brazil and India new strains will keep popping up. Some of these will not be prevented by current vaccines (there is already evidence that the pfizer vaccine is less effective against one of the South African strains). So we will be playing eternal catch up.

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PocketMacrophobia

[mention]Basil[/mention] [mention]Iamferalz[/mention] we've had three different criteria for home quarantine when dp flew home from work.


He had to stay home and distance, the rest of us could go out.


We all had to stay home.


He'd be expected to hotel quarantine.


All at different stages early and mid last year.


What was deemed necessary changed rapidly.

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Kiwi Bicycle

Home quarantine would be nice, but hotel quarantine has shown it only takes one dick to screw the system up.

We need rapid, cheap testing that is reliable, like that breath test being developed here in Australia.

I don't think visitng Taiwan would be a good idea as well, what with what China is doing lately. I wouldn't be surprised if there's military action next year...

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At the rate our vaccine roll out is going....................


I also feel that as covid 19 is spreading with little to no control in Brazil and India new strains will keep popping up. Some of these will not be prevented by current vaccines (there is already evidence that the pfizer vaccine is less effective against one of the South African strains). So we will be playing eternal catch up.

There’s the argument that for countries like Australia with effective elimination, the moral thing to do is to delay mass roll out of vaccinations in Australia and focus our manufacturing (and purchasing) capacity to regions where Covid is out of control to minimise the risk of more variants.

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I don't think visitng Taiwan would be a good idea as well, what with what China is doing lately. I wouldn't be surprised if there's military action next year...

 

I sadly agree. It’s depressing actually and I feel worried for Taiwan.

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At the rate our vaccine roll out is going....................


I also feel that as covid 19 is spreading with little to no control in Brazil and India new strains will keep popping up. Some of these will not be prevented by current vaccines (there is already evidence that the pfizer vaccine is less effective against one of the South African strains). So we will be playing eternal catch up.

There’s the argument that for countries like Australia with effective elimination, the moral thing to do is to delay mass roll out of vaccinations in Australia and focus our manufacturing (and purchasing) capacity to regions where Covid is out of control to minimise the risk of more variants.

 

The first goal should be reduction of risk of severe disease and death and that’s what the first generation vaccines are good at. Australia’s elimination status is precarious and dependent on regular short lockdowns, which is a cost in itself . There is a definite chance we could have a more serious outbreak at some point. Our vaccine rollout is already slow by worldwide standards anyway. I read that in terms of 7 day averages we were recently in 104th place behind Lebanon but in front of Bangladesh.


Maybe stamping out mutants via exporting vaccines can be done with the second generation vaccines? I would really like to see expanded domestic production of the other vaccines here. This is a weakness on our part.


Also, it may not be entirely possible to completely stamp out variants due to the politics of different countries . Look at Brazil, where they have a very right wing leader Jair Bonsonaro, who doesn’t actually care about the Covid rampage in his country and told people to “stop whining”. Tanzania until recently had a Covid sceptic for a prime minister and doctors were forbidden from even diagnosing it. India has a huge domestic production capacity but still has lots of cases. It’s all very messy.

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At the rate our vaccine roll out is going....................


I also feel that as covid 19 is spreading with little to no control in Brazil and India new strains will keep popping up. Some of these will not be prevented by current vaccines (there is already evidence that the pfizer vaccine is less effective against one of the South African strains). So we will be playing eternal catch up.

There’s the argument that for countries like Australia with effective elimination, the moral thing to do is to delay mass roll out of vaccinations in Australia and focus our manufacturing (and purchasing) capacity to regions where Covid is out of control to minimise the risk of more variants.

 

The first goal should be reduction of risk of severe disease and death and that’s what the first generation vaccines are good at. Australia’s elimination status is precarious and dependent on regular short lockdowns, which is a cost in itself . There is a definite chance we could have a more serious outbreak at some point. Our vaccine rollout is already slow by worldwide standards anyway. I read that in terms of 7 day averages we were recently in 104th place behind Lebanon but in front of Bangladesh.


Maybe stamping out mutants via exporting vaccines can be done with the second generation vaccines? I would really like to see expanded domestic production of the other vaccines here. This is a weakness on our part.


Also, it may not be entirely possible to completely stamp out variants due to the politics of different countries . Look at Brazil, where they have a very right wing leader Jair Bonsonaro, who doesn’t actually care about the Covid rampage in his country and told people to “stop whining”. Tanzania until recently had a Covid sceptic for a prime minister and doctors were forbidden from even diagnosing it. India has a huge domestic production capacity but still has lots of cases. It’s all very messy.

There is an election coming up in Brazil I think. Hopefully Bolsonaro gets the boot. And the Tanzanian PM managed to 'Darwin' himself out of the equation. Hopefully the wheel will turn eventually.

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The October thing was a fantasy even when they pretended it wasn't. They've now dispensed with that and are saying maybe, hopefully, everyone will have had one jab of something by the end of this year.

There are actually a lot of people coming and going for compassionate reasons. The ones who don't get to go are in the news, but plenty are just quietly doing it. I don't know the decision making process, and look maybe it's dodgy as (au pairs anyone?) but it is happening.

I'm tentatively planning a trip for Euro summer 2022, but 95 per cent convinced it'll be 2023. I certainly won't book anything yet. I don't necessarily think everything will be sorted by 2023; I just think they'll give up and we'll go "back to normal" anyway.

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The October thing was a fantasy even when they pretended it wasn't. They've now dispensed with that and are saying maybe, hopefully, everyone will have had one jab of something by the end of this year.

 

 

Scott Morrison admitted yesterday that even the end of the year wasn’t going to happen and that they can’t give any timeframes at all currently.


This article below now has experts saying overseas travel won’t return to normal until 2024! I hope the fact it’s in news.com.au means it’s an exaggeration but I have a dark feeling it isn’t.


https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/international-travel-for-australians-likely-wont-return-until-2024/news-story/310c4c272e77e356f4e001e0a839820a

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The October thing was a fantasy even when they pretended it wasn't. They've now dispensed with that and are saying maybe, hopefully, everyone will have had one jab of something by the end of this year.

 

 

Scott Morrison admitted yesterday that even the end of the year wasn’t going to happen and that they can’t give any timeframes at all currently.


This article below now has experts saying overseas travel won’t return to normal until 2024! I hope the fact it’s in news.com.au means it’s an exaggeration but I have a dark feeling it isn’t.


https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/international-travel-for-australians-likely-wont-return-until-2024/news-story/310c4c272e77e356f4e001e0a839820a

 

I guess though it doesn't have to be "normal" or the old normal anyway, to suit most people's needs. I had overseas trips roughly every 2-3 years, and I'm on the privileged end of the spectrum, I think.

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The October thing was a fantasy even when they pretended it wasn't. They've now dispensed with that and are saying maybe, hopefully, everyone will have had one jab of something by the end of this year.

 

 

Scott Morrison admitted yesterday that even the end of the year wasn’t going to happen and that they can’t give any timeframes at all currently.


This article below now has experts saying overseas travel won’t return to normal until 2024! I hope the fact it’s in news.com.au means it’s an exaggeration but I have a dark feeling it isn’t.


https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/international-travel-for-australians-likely-wont-return-until-2024/news-story/310c4c272e77e356f4e001e0a839820a

 

I guess though it doesn't have to be "normal" or the old normal anyway, to suit most people's needs. I had overseas trips roughly every 2-3 years, and I'm on the privileged end of the spectrum, I think.

 

Agreed, if you are talking about holidays for pleasure, I can easily wait for that. It’s just when you have family ties overseas when it becomes difficult, especially if they are elderly. It would be nice to know you could go there and return in a crisis without being stranded for months. This is why I hope Australia expands quarantine to accommodate this long term reality.

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Scott Morrison admitted yesterday that even the end of the year wasn’t going to happen and that they can’t give any timeframes at all currently.


This article below now has experts saying overseas travel won’t return to normal until 2024! I hope the fact it’s in news.com.au means it’s an exaggeration but I have a dark feeling it isn’t.


https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/international-travel-for-australians-likely-wont-return-until-2024/news-story/310c4c272e77e356f4e001e0a839820a

 

I guess though it doesn't have to be "normal" or the old normal anyway, to suit most people's needs. I had overseas trips roughly every 2-3 years, and I'm on the privileged end of the spectrum, I think.

 

Agreed, if you are talking about holidays for pleasure, I can easily wait for that. It’s just when you have family ties overseas when it becomes difficult, especially if they are elderly. It would be nice to know you could go there and return in a crisis without being stranded for months. This is why I hope Australia expands quarantine to accommodate this long term reality.

 

Yeah but maybe this is what will come back, and just fucking off to Disneyland will wait a while - which would be sad for a few years but not the end of the world. It would be good if they could bring back free movement of international students, compassionate travel, and most holidays, but make telecommuting for work the new norm, rather than sending businessmen all over the world again to attend meetings and feel important.

I have a lot of family overseas and there are members of my fam who travel to see each other frequently. They're hurting now, and I'm hurting for them, but I do think that could come back sooner.

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Its a depressing thought that we may not be able to travel internationally for another three years, I hope it isn't that long.

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Princess Peach

I’m just hoping that they bring in home quarantine for those who have traveled to a ‘bubble country’ I might be able to convince DH to book a trip to NZ for next year so we can take the kids to see some snow.

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  • 1 month later...
pollyannablack
On 12/04/2021 at 10:42 AM, Lurker said:

I have a lot of family overseas

Im in the same boat, it's hard! Hoping for some compassionate arrangements (shorter/cheaper/home quarantine) next year post jab!

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It must be so hard for those of you in that position. Given my age group I know an awful lot of women who have kids having their own kids somewhere overseas, and can't be with them.

Someone I know had their first grandchild (here) but the mother had PND and all she wanted was her own Mum. Fortunately she was NZ so she could eventually go.

@Princess Peachwe don't have any quarantine for our first bubble country, do we? I thought NZ was now no different from any Australian state.

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