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WDYT are the chances of international travel by Dec 2021/Jan 2022?


LifesGood

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What % chance would you give it? I was at 50:50 until recently, now I'm more in the range of 20% chance.


To be clear - I'm talking about travel beyond Australia, NZ (already starting) and the Pacific Islands.

Edited by LifesGood
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Fuck all, to be honest. Not so long ago, I was thinking maybe I could get back to Ireland Christmas 2021. Now I’m thinking that if I’m lucky it’ll be Jun 2022 and if I’m realistic it’ll be Christmas 2022...

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MintyBiscuit

We were thinking DH may end up with a work trip to Singapore in the last quarter of this year, but that seems a lot less likely now. Beyond that I have no idea. His work is talking about holding their large conference in person in the US in February next year as normal, I do not see that happening

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We are booked on a river cruise through the European markets at Christmas time.


With the latest vaccine news and increased cases, I suspect with 75% certainty that we will have to move this further out for the 4th time.


Come September the decision will be made.


Let’s hope we get some better developments worldwide

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jojonbeanie

Doubt it. My husband usually has a board meeting in the USA four times a year where members fly in from all over the world. They are not planning anything but tele meetings for the next 12 months.

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I am hoping at least Japan, Singapore might be on the cards but it does seem very unlikely. I'm thinking about booking a cancellable holiday somewhere in Oz for Christmas/January so we have something interesting to look forward to. Maybe WA?

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Apparently once the travel bubble with NZ opens up there will be a loophole where Australians can transit through NZ to wherever else they want to go in the world without getting permission from Border Force to leave.


NZ has never restricted its people from leaving the country like Australia. They go through HQ on their return.


So if you are desperate....

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No chance.

Dec 2022 - .maybe


I think certain types of structured travel will become much more prevalent eg fruit pickets and international students. Basically people coming for longer periods and specific purposes


The rest will take a while.

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Kiwi Bicycle

You would still ahve to quarantine coming back into Australia if you use the NZ back door...

Apparently Singapore was on the cards, but only if you are vaccinated, so that probably won't happen until next year now...

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None seeing Dec 2020/Jan 2021 has already happened. Do you mean Dec 2021/Jan 2022?


They are aiming to complete the vaccine roll-out by Oct. I'd expect they will start opening up travel to vaccinated individuals to certain destinations around the same time. They can't keep the borders closed forever, though I don't think they'll be as open as they once were, not for a few more years at least

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You would still ahve to quarantine coming back into Australia if you use the NZ back door...

 

It’s not so much quarantining when you return most people take issue with. It’s not being able to leave the country in the first place.


I know people who have been denied permission to leave Australia so they can say goodbye to loved ones overseas. They would do anything to have that time with their loved one, of course they would happily quarantine upon return, but no they can’t leave.

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I give Christmas a 5% chance but only for vaccinated people of which there will be very very few and only for a family visiting reason, with permits, not open tourism - but even then that would be too complicated so probably nothing!


I'm feeling extremely relieved about the NZ backdoor escape option to be honest, at least now if one of the parents goes rapidly downhill or has an emergency, I know we can most likely be there within 48 hours (notwithstanding quarantine in Europe).

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I was chatting to someone who works in bio security recently and she said they have been told international travel won’t be happening until late next year sometime.


I have a relative travelling internationally regularly for work. Its been a relatively stress free process for them, which is surprising with the caps on numbers returning and what not. No quarantine needed in the country they go to and they do their 2 weeks on return, which has been built into rosters.

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Apparently once the travel bubble with NZ opens up there will be a loophole where Australians can transit through NZ to wherever else they want to go in the world without getting permission from Border Force to leave.


NZ has never restricted its people from leaving the country like Australia. They go through HQ on their return.


So if you are desperate....

I read an article mentioning the ‘back door’. It didn’t talk about how easy or difficult it would be to get back into Oz. NZ has a delay for inbound travellers, potentially not as long as Australia’s, but it still means you’re not guaranteed a spot getting back in.

 

You would still ahve to quarantine coming back into Australia if you use the NZ back door...

Apparently Singapore was on the cards, but only if you are vaccinated, so that probably won't happen until next year now...

I also read that Singapore was not too impressed with Morrison’s idea on travellers using Singapore as a sly quarantine hub instead of Australia. Their officials made diplomatically sensitive comments about it being early days and there is much more planing and negotiations required.

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None seeing Dec 2020/Jan 2021 has already happened. Do you mean Dec 2021/Jan 2022?

:lol: Didn’t realise I’d done that. I’ll try to edit it

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ClaudiaCosette

I just feel now it’s never gonna happen until the rest of the world sorts it’s shit out. So never.

 

This is kind of how I feel. I'm not holding my breath for international travel anytime soon. I have a loose plan for an overseas trip in 2025 but am absolutely not making any definite plans until much later on.


I do, however, think that there should be some concession for those with close family members overseas. Probably easier said than done, though.

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I also read that Singapore was not too impressed with Morrison’s idea on travellers using Singapore as a sly quarantine hub instead of Australia. Their officials made diplomatically sensitive comments about it being early days and there is much more planing and negotiations required.

 

A huge amount, I should think. Everyone I know with a dual passport, myself included, routinely swaps passports on the second leg, which means there’d be no record on, say, my Aussie passport, if I used my euro passport to go Singapore-Europe. So no doubt you’d have to show someone official a full itinerary including hotel bookings etc and really, are Singapore going to police that?

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RynandStompy

I think unlikely until maybe Northern hem Summer next year. So June 2022-ish.


Here within Aus there'd need to be a vast improvement in vaccination rates (unlikely atm) , AND far more quarantine places available for returnees than currently.

Perhaps a single traveller will find it possible sooner but it'll continue to be exorbitantly expensive and hard to arrange places for a small family, for at least a year.

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I know two people that have had permission and travelled overseas to farewell loved ones. It's been in the last 6 months though, so I wonder if they are allowing more compassionate cases?

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I think there is greater political pressure now to start opening up.


The States agreed in the National Cabinet meeting yesterday to be slower with closing state borders upon outbreaks and to loosen restrictions further, perhaps because the quarantine workers have mostly been vaccinated,.


So I think once the 50 plus year olds are vaccinated (by October?) then I think maybe there will be a gradual opening up of the international border. People and organisations such as Qantas etc accepted it being closed in return for a quick vaccine roll out anyway, so politically the government will have to be seen to be doing something despite the vaccine procurement delays for younger people and increasing vaccine hesitancy generally.

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I have a relative travelling internationally regularly for work. Its been a relatively stress free process for them, which is surprising with the caps on numbers returning and what not. No quarantine needed in the country they go to and they do their 2 weeks on return, which has been built into rosters.

 

One of the problems for people stuck overseas is the cost of the flights. If the company is paying, then they can afford the more expensive seats that are less likely to be bumped off a flight.

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TheGreenSheep

Even with a travel bubble in place, it’s hardly likely you’re going to disembark and go to work, I’d imagine there will have to be return regime/COVID testing in place too. I just keep putting it in the ‘all too hard’ basket for the foreseeable future.

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